Cowpeas (Vigna uniculata L. Walp) are grown by many smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa for food and their ability to fix nitrogen even under stress. Their performance depends on the indigenous rhizobial strains that live in symbiotic association with the roots; it can be enhanced if the seeds are inoculated with more effective ones. Data of the effectiveness of the technique under a variety of climatic conditions is rare. Here, we thus use a model to upscale two field experiments conducted in Namibia to include different climate change scenarios. The simulations show that non-inoculated cowpeas have mean yields of 0.5 t/ha and inoculated cowpeas 1 t/ha. If climatic conditions are favorable (cool and wet), estimated yield differences increase to over 1 t/ha. In dry years (< 200 mm), the average yield difference is only 0.1 t/ha. In the far future (2080-2100), instances of dry and hot years will increase. Using inoculated cowpea seeds instead of non-inoculated ones thus does not benefit farmers as much then as in the near future (2030-2050). In conclusion, using cowpea seeds inoculated with an efficient rhizobial strain can significantly increase yields under varying climatic conditions, but yield advantages decrease markedly in very dry and hot years.
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