Adherence to treatment and use of co-medication, but also molecular factors such as CYP2D6 genotype, affect tamoxifen metabolism, with consequences for early breast cancer prognosis. In a prospective study of 149 tamoxifen-treated early-stage breast cancer patients from Brazil followed up for 5 years, we investigated the association between the active tamoxifen metabolite (Z)-endoxifen at 3 months and event-free survival (EFS) adjusted for clinico-pathological factors. Twenty-five patients (16.8%) had recurred or died at a median follow-up of 52.3 months. When we applied a putative 15 nM threshold used in previous independent studies, (Z)-endoxifen levels below the threshold showed an association with shorter EFS in univariate analysis (p = 0.045) and after adjustment for stage (HR 2.52; 95% CI 1.13-5.65; p = 0.024). However, modeling of plasma concentrations with splines instead of dichotomization did not verify a significant association with EFS (univariate analysis: p = 0.158; adjusted for stage: p = 0.117). Hence, in our small exploratory study, the link between impaired tamoxifen metabolism and early breast cancer recurrence could not be unanimously demonstrated. This inconsistency justifies larger modeling studies backed up by mechanistic pharmacodynamic analyses to shed new light on this suspected association and the stipulation of an appropriate predictive (Z)-endoxifen threshold.
Keywords: (Z)-endoxifen; Brazil; CYP2D6; breast cancer; early recurrence; survival; tamoxifen.