Lake water volume fluctuations in response to climate change in Xinjiang, China from 2002 to 2018

Climate change has a global impact on the water cycle and its spatial patterns, and these impacts are more pronounced in eco-fragile regions. Arid regions are significantly affected by human activities like farming, and climate change, which influences lake water volumes, especially in different latitudes. This study integrates radar altimetry data from 2002 to 2018 with optical remote sensing images to analyze changes in the lake areas, levels, and volumes at different altitudes in Xinjiang, China. We analyzed changes in lake volumes in March, June, and October and studied their causes. The results showed large changes in the surface areas, levels, and volumes of lakes at different altitudes. During 2002-2010, the lakes in low- and medium-altitude areas were shrinking but lakes in high altitude areas were expanding. Monthly analysis revealed more diversified results: the lake water levels and volumes tended to decrease in March (-0.10 m/year, 37.55×10⁸ m³) and increase in June (0.03 m/year, 3.48×10⁸ m³) and October (0.04 m/year, 26.90×10⁸ m³). The time series lake water volume data was reconstructed for 2011 to 2018 based on the empirical model and the total lake water volume showed a slightly increasing trend during this period (71.35×10⁸ m³). We hypothesized that changes in lake water at high altitudes were influenced by temperature-induced glacial snow melt and lake water in low- to medium-altitude areas was most influenced by human activities like agricultural irrigation practices.