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Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading.
Risbey JS, Squire DT, Black AS, DelSole T, Lepore C, Matear RJ, Monselesan DP, Moore TS, Richardson D, Schepen A, Tippett MK, Tozer CR. Risbey JS, et al. Among authors: delsole t. Nat Commun. 2021 Jul 16;12(1):4346. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-23771-z. Nat Commun. 2021. PMID: 34272363 Free PMC article. Review.
Monthly ENSO Forecast Skill and Lagged Ensemble Size.
Trenary L, DelSole T, Tippett MK, Pegion K. Trenary L, et al. Among authors: delsole t. J Adv Model Earth Syst. 2018 Apr;10(4):1074-1086. doi: 10.1002/2017MS001204. Epub 2018 Apr 20. J Adv Model Earth Syst. 2018. PMID: 29937973 Free PMC article.
A new method for determining the optimal lagged ensemble.
Trenary L, DelSole T, Tippett MK, Pegion K. Trenary L, et al. Among authors: delsole t. J Adv Model Earth Syst. 2017 Mar;9(1):291-306. doi: 10.1002/2016MS000838. Epub 2017 Jan 31. J Adv Model Earth Syst. 2017. PMID: 28580050 Free PMC article.
The Weighted-Average Lagged Ensemble.
DelSole T, Trenary L, Tippett MK. DelSole T, et al. J Adv Model Earth Syst. 2017 Nov;9(7):2739-2752. doi: 10.1002/2017MS001128. Epub 2017 Nov 29. J Adv Model Earth Syst. 2017. PMID: 29399270 Free PMC article.
Decadal predictability without ocean dynamics.
Srivastava A, DelSole T. Srivastava A, et al. Among authors: delsole t. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 Feb 28;114(9):2177-2182. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1614085114. Epub 2017 Feb 13. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017. PMID: 28193900 Free PMC article.