The CD8+ T-cell response is central to control and eventual elimination of persistent viral infections. Although it might be expected that CD8+ T-cell activation would be associated with a better clinical outcome during viral infections, in long-term HIV-1 infection, high levels of CD8+ T-cell activation are instead associated with faster disease progression. In this study, cell surface expression of CD38, a flow cytometric marker of T-cell activation of CD8+ T cells, had predictive value for HIV-1 disease progression that was in part independent of the predictive value of plasma viral burden and CD4+ T-cell number. Measurements of CD38 antigen expression on CD8+ T cells in HIV-1-infected patients may be of value for assessing prognosis and the impact of therapeutic interventions. The pathogenetic reason why CD8+ T-cell activation is associated with poor outcome in HIV-1 disease remains unknown. Possibly CD8+ T-cell activation contributes to immunologic exhaustion, hyporesponsiveness of T cells to their cognate antigens, or perturbations in the T-cell receptor repertoire.