Periodicity and prediction of mania onsets in biopolar I affective disorders

Psychiatry Clin Neurosci. 1996 Oct;50(5):251-5. doi: 10.1111/j.1440-1819.1996.tb00559.x.

Abstract

In studying the periodicity of mania onsets, cycle-oriented diagrams were made of the clinical course from 257 manic episodes analyzed retrospectively in 34 bipolar I manic-depressive patients for a period of about 5 years. Using these diagrams, the frequent period of mania onsets located in one-quarter of the follow-up period was pre-estimated, and the accordance ratio during a 25 month follow-up period was analyzed. The accordance ratio in all subjects was 39% (11/28) for the first episode and 35% (7/20) for the second episode. These ratios were not significantly different from the expected level (25%). The number of subjects was limited to 11 patients (10 rapid and 1 non-rapid cyclers) whose number of episodes used for the determination of the index cycle was eight or more. The accordance ratio was 64% (7/11) and 60% (6/10) for the first and second episodes, respectively. Their levels were significantly higher than those expected. Periodicity of mania onsets existed at least in rapid cyclers with abundant past data.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Bipolar Disorder / diagnosis*
  • Bipolar Disorder / psychology
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Periodicity*
  • Probability
  • Prospective Studies
  • Retrospective Studies