The impact of digital inclusive financial development on local government expenditure: Evidence from China

PLoS One. 2024 May 16;19(5):e0300775. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0300775. eCollection 2024.

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of digital inclusive financial development on local government expenditure incentives at the income level. It does so by constructing a multi-level government Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model that incorporates the financial sector. By employing empirical methods that involve uncertainty shocks and counterfactual simulations, the research yields several key findings. Firstly, the development of digital inclusive finance contributes to breaking down the urban-rural dual financial structure, thus facilitating balanced economic development within regions. Secondly, it reduces the proportion of financially excluded areas, accelerates fiscal decentralization, leading to an increase in local government fiscal revenue, and, consequently, an expansion of local fiscal expenditures. Thirdly, at a certain stage of digital inclusive finance development, it tends to crowd out residents' investment and consumption. Therefore, the decentralization of fiscal power and the expansion of local government expenditure at this stage may paradoxically inhibit regional economic growth. The study's conclusions validate the significant impact of digital inclusive finance on local government incentives at the income level.

MeSH terms

  • China
  • Economic Development*
  • Financing, Government / trends
  • Humans
  • Income
  • Local Government*
  • Models, Economic

Grants and funding

Our study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation Regional Project “Financial Leverage Choices and Consumption Behavior Decision in the Evolution Process of Family Life Cycle” (No.72263033), Ministry of Education Humanities and Social Sciences Youth Project “Study on the Impact Effects and Mechanisms of Intergenerational Wealth Transfer on Children’s Labor Supply in the Evolution Process of Family Life Cycle” (No.20YJC790047). China Postdoctoral Science Foundation 69th Batch General Project “Effects and Mechanisms of Intergenerational Wealth Transfer on Children’s Career Choice” (No.2021M692664). Yunnan Provincial Basic Research Program General Project “Study on the Impact Mechanisms and Effects of Digital Inclusive Finance on Household Livelihood Strategies” (No.202201AT070176). The funder (Qian Huang) had role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. There was no additional external funding received for this study.