Objective: To develop the Mexico Smoking and Vaping Model (Mexico SAVM) to estimate cigarette and electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) prevalence and the public health impact of legalizing ENDS use.
Methods: SAVM, a cohort-based discrete-time simulation model, compares two scenarios. The ENDS-Restricted Scenario estimates smoking prevalence and associated mortality outcomes under the current policy of an ENDS ban, using Mexico-specific population projections, death rates, life expectancy, and smoking and e-cigarette prevalence. The ENDS-Unrestricted Scenario projects smoking and vaping prevalence under a hypothetical scenario where ENDS use is allowed. The impact of legalizing ENDS use is estimated as the difference in smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths (SVADs) and life-years lost (LYLs) between the ENDS-Restricted and Unrestricted scenarios.
Results: Compared to a national ENDS ban, The Mexico SAVM projects that legalizing ENDS use could decrease smoking prevalence by 40.1% in males and 30.9% in females by 2049 compared to continuing the national ENDS ban. This reduction in prevalence would save 2.9 (2.5 males and 0.4 females) million life-years and avert almost 106 (91.0 males and 15.5 females) thousand deaths between 2025 and 2049. Public health gains decline by 43% to 59,748 SVADs averted when the switching rate is reduced by half and by 24.3% (92,806 SVADs averted) with a 25% ENDS risk level from that of cigarettes but increased by 24.3% (121,375 SVADs averted) with the 5% ENDS risk.
Conclusions: Mexico SAVM suggests that greater access to ENDS and a more permissive ENDS regulation, simultaneous with strong cigarette policies, would reduce smoking prevalence and decrease smoking-related mortality. The unanticipated effects of an ENDS ban merit closer scrutiny, with further consideration of how specific ENDS restrictions may maximize public health benefits.