Association between breastfeeding duration and diabetes mellitus in menopausal women: a machine-learning analysis using population-based retrospective study

Abstract

Background: Breastfeeding resets insulin resistance caused by pregnancy however, studies on the association between breastfeeding and diabetes mellitus (DM) have reported inconsistent results. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the risk of DM according to breastfeeding duration in large-scale population-based retrospective study. In addition, machine-learning prediction models for DM and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) were developed to further evaluate this association.

Methods: We used the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys database, a nationwide and population-based health survey from 2010 to 2020. We included 15,946 postmenopausal women with a history of delivery, whom we divided into three groups according to the average breastfeeding duration: (1) no breastfeeding, (2) < 12 months breastfeeding, and (3) ≥ 12 months breastfeeding. Prediction models for DM and HbA1c were developed using an artificial neural network, decision tree, logistic regression, Naïve Bayes, random forest, and support vector machine.

Results: In total, 2248 (14.1%) women had DM and 14,402 (90.3%) had a history of breastfeeding. The prevalence of DM was the lowest in the < 12 breastfeeding group (no breastfeeding vs. < 12 months breastfeeding vs. ≥ 12 months breastfeeding; 161 [10.4%] vs. 362 [9.0%] vs. 1,725 [16.7%], p < 0.001). HbA1c levels were also the lowest in the < 12 breastfeeding group (HbA1c: no breastfeeding vs. < 12 months breastfeeding vs. ≥ 12 months breastfeeding; 5.9% vs. 5.9% vs. 6.1%, respectively, p < 0.001). After adjustment for covariates, the risk of DM was significantly increased in both, the no breastfeeding (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.29; 95% CI 1.29, 1.62]) and ≥ 12 months of breastfeeding groups (aOR 1.18; 95% CI 1.01, 1.37) compared to that in the < 12 months breastfeeding group. The accuracy and the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve of the DM prediction model were 0.93 and 0.95, respectively. The average breastfeeding duration was ranked among the top 15 determinants of DM, which supported the strong association between breastfeeding duration and DM. This association was also observed in a prediction model for HbA1c.

Conclusions: Women who did not breasted had a higher risk of developing DM than those who breastfed for up to 12 months.

Keywords: Breastfeeding; Diabetes; Machine learning; Prevention.