The physical stability of amorphous solid dispersions (ASDs) is a major topic in the formulation research of oral dosage forms. To minimize the effort of investigating the long-term stability using cost- and time-consuming experiments, we developed a thermodynamic and kinetic modeling framework to predict and understand the crystallization kinetics of ASDs during long-term storage below the glass transition. Since crystallization of the active phrarmaceutical ingredients (APIs) in ASDs largely depends on the amount of water absorbed by the ASDs, water-sorption kinetics and API-crystallization kinetics were considered simultaneously. The developed modeling approach allows prediction of the time evolution of viscosity, supersaturation, and crystallinity as a function of drug load, relative humidity, and temperature. It was applied and evaluated against two-year-lasting crystallization experiments of ASDs containing nifedipine and copovidone or HPMCAS measured in part I of this work. We could show that the proposed modeling approach is able to describe the interplay between water sorption and API crystallization and to predict long-term stabilities of ASDs just based on short-term measurements. Most importantly, it enables explaining and understanding the reasons for different and sometimes even unexpected crystallization behaviors of ASDs.
Keywords: amorphous solid dispersion; classical nucleation theory; crystallization kinetics; molecular mobility; thermodynamic driving force; water-sorption kinetics.