Nomogram Predicts Prognostic Factors for Head and Neck Cutaneous Melanoma: A Population-Based Analysis

Chenjing Ma; Ruihao Qin; Yong Cao; Yanyan Dai; Menglei Hua; Liuying Wang; Lei Cao; Lijun Fan; Kang Li

doi:10.1016/j.wneu.2024.04.176

Nomogram Predicts Prognostic Factors for Head and Neck Cutaneous Melanoma: A Population-Based Analysis

World Neurosurg. 2024 May 8:S1878-8750(24)00750-2. doi: 10.1016/j.wneu.2024.04.176. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Chenjing Ma¹, Ruihao Qin¹, Yong Cao¹, Yanyan Dai¹, Menglei Hua¹, Liuying Wang¹, Lei Cao¹, Lijun Fan², Kang Li³

Affiliations

¹ Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, China.
² Center for Endemic Disease Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Harbin Medical University.
³ Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, China. Electronic address: likang@emshrbmu.edu.cn.

PMID: 38729520
DOI: 10.1016/j.wneu.2024.04.176

Abstract

Background: The head and neck cutaneous melanoma (HNCM) accounts for 20% of newly diagnosed melanoma. Research on prognostic models for their survival yet remains largely unexplored. This study employed a nomogram approach to develop and validate a predictive model for both overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) in patients with HNCM.

Methods: This study analyzed the HNCM patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2014 from SEER database. To identify independent prognostic factors for HNCM, we integrated results from univariate Cox regression analysis, random survival forests, and LASSO regression with cross-validation. A nomogram was designed and validated based on the identified characteristics to predict the 3-, 5-, and 8-year OS and DSS of patients with HNCM.

Results: Age, Stage, Ulceration, Thickness, Chemotherapy, LN_Metastasis, Radiation were identified as independent prognostic factors. The nomogram achieved a satisfactory performance with C-indices of 0.824(DSS) and 0.757(OS) in the training cohort and 0.827(DSS) and 0.749(OS) in the validation cohort, respectively. The AUC for the OS at 3-, 5-, and 8- years were 0.789, 0.788, and 0.794 for the training cohort, and 0.778, 0.776, and 0.795 for the validation cohort, respectively. For DSS, the AUC at 3-, 5-, and 8- years were 0.859, 0.842, and 0.828 in the training cohort, and 0.864, 0.844, and 0.834 in the validation cohort, respectively. The calibration curve showed that there was a strong correlation between the observed outcomes and the predicted survival probability.

Conclusion: This study established and validated predictive nomograms for HNCM patients with robust predictive performance.

Keywords: Head and neck cutaneous melanoma; LASSO; Nomogram; Random survival forest.