Purpose: Multiple clinical visits are necessary to determine progression of keratoconus before offering corneal cross-linking. The purpose of this study was to develop a neural network that can potentially predict progression during the initial visit using tomography images and other clinical risk factors.
Methods: The neural network's development depended on data from 570 keratoconus eyes. During the initial visit, numerical risk factors and posterior elevation maps from Scheimpflug imaging were collected. Increase of steepest keratometry of 1 diopter during follow-up was used as the progression criterion. The data were partitioned into training, validation, and test sets. The first two were used for training, and the latter for performance statistics. The impact of individual risk factors and images was assessed using ablation studies and class activation maps.
Results: The most accurate prediction of progression during the initial visit was obtained by using a combination of MobileNet and a multilayer perceptron with an accuracy of 0.83. Using numerical risk factors alone resulted in an accuracy of 0.82. The use of only images had an accuracy of 0.77. The most influential risk factors in the ablation study were age and posterior elevation. The greatest activation in the class activation maps was seen at the highest posterior elevation where there was significant deviation from the best fit sphere.
Conclusions: The neural network has exhibited good performance in predicting potential future progression during the initial visit.
Translational relevance: The developed neural network could be of clinical significance for keratoconus patients by identifying individuals at risk of progression.