Scenarios for the Altamira cave CO2 concentration from 1950 to 2100

Marina Sáez; David Benavente; Soledad Cuezva; Mireille Huc; Ángel Fernández-Cortés; Arnaud Mialon; Yann Kerr; Sergio Sánchez-Moral; Sylvain Mangiarotti

doi:10.1038/s41598-024-60149-9

Scenarios for the Altamira cave CO₂ concentration from 1950 to 2100

Sci Rep. 2024 May 6;14(1):10359. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-60149-9.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Université de Toulouse CESBIO (CNES, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, UPS), Toulouse, France.
² University of Alicante, Alicante, Spain.
³ Spanish Geological Survey, IGME-CSIC, Madrid, Spain. scuezva@csic.es.
⁴ University of Almería, Almería, Spain.
⁵ National Museum of Natural Sciences, MNCN-CSIC, Madrid, Spain.
⁶ Université de Toulouse CESBIO (CNES, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, UPS), Toulouse, France. sylvain.mangiarotti@ird.fr.

^# Contributed equally.

Abstract

A data-driven approach insensitive to the initial conditions was developed to extract governing equations for the concentration of CO₂ in the Altamira cave (Spain) and its two main drivers: the outside temperature and the soil moisture. This model was then reformulated in order to use satellite observations and meteorological predictions, as a forcing. The concentration of CO₂ inside the cave was then investigated from 1950 to 2100 under various scenarios. It is found that extreme levels of CO₂ were reached during the period 1950-1972 due to the massive affluence of visitors. It is demonstrated that it is possible to monitor the CO₂ in the cave in real time using satellite information as an external forcing. For the future, it is shown that the maximum values of CO₂ will exceed the levels reached during the 1980s and the 1990s when the CO₂ introduced by the touristic visits, although intentionally reduced, still enhanced considerably the micro corrosion of walls and pigments.