Immigrant background, incarceration history and recidivism among adults assessed for illicit substance use severity: Findings from a Swedish registry study

Simone Scarpa; Lena Lundgren; Akeem Modeste-James; Johannes John-Langba

doi:10.1016/j.drugpo.2024.104432

Immigrant background, incarceration history and recidivism among adults assessed for illicit substance use severity: Findings from a Swedish registry study

Int J Drug Policy. 2024 Apr 25:128:104432. doi: 10.1016/j.drugpo.2024.104432. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Simone Scarpa¹, Lena Lundgren², Akeem Modeste-James³, Johannes John-Langba⁴

Affiliations

¹ Department of Social Work, Umeå University, Samhällsvetarhuset, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden. Electronic address: simone.scarpa@umu.se.
² Department of Social Work, Umeå University, Samhällsvetarhuset, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden; Cross-National Behavioral Health Laboratory, University of Denver, 2148 S High Street, Denver, CO 80208, United States; Graduate School of Social Work, University of Denver, 2148 S High Street, Denver, CO 80208, United States.
³ Cross-National Behavioral Health Laboratory, University of Denver, 2148 S High Street, Denver, CO 80208, United States; Graduate School of Social Work, University of Denver, 2148 S High Street, Denver, CO 80208, United States.
⁴ School of Applied Human Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Howard College 238 Mazisi Kunene Road Glenwood, Durban, South Africa.

PMID: 38669771
DOI: 10.1016/j.drugpo.2024.104432

Abstract

Background: In Sweden, as in other countries, individuals with immigrant backgrounds are disproportionately represented within the incarcerated population. This study examined the association between immigrant background and future incarceration for individuals assessed for illicit substance use severity, while considering their prior incarceration history.

Methods: Using data from Swedish Addiction Severity Index (ASI) assessments linked to register data from Statistics Sweden, we employed Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) regression models to analyse differences in incarceration histories within five years before and after ASI assessments based on immigrant backgrounds. Additionally, Cox proportional-hazard models were used to assess the likelihood of post-assessment incarceration among these groups.

Results: Immigrant background was positively associated with pre- and post-assessment incarceration. First- and second-generation immigrants from the Global South had longer periods of incarceration in the five years before assessments compared to native Swedes. Post-assessment, first-generation immigrants showed longer periods of incarceration. Survival analyses supported these findings, indicating a higher risk of prolonged post-assessment incarceration among all immigrant groups, particularly first-generation immigrants from the Global South.

Conclusion: Among individuals assessed for illicit drug use within Swedish municipalities, those with immigrant backgrounds faced higher incarceration risks, even after controlling for substance use severity and prior incarceration. Tailored interventions and support systems are vital to prevent re-entry into the criminal justice system. Timely actions can break re-offending cycles, redirecting paths away from reoffending and towards legal reintegration, thereby reducing incarceration and recidivism rates.

Keywords: Illegal substance use; Immigrant background; Incarceration; Recidivism; Sweden.