Exposure to Concurrent Heatwaves and Ozone Pollution and Associations with Mortality Risk: A Nationwide Study in China

Abstract

Background: Concurrent extreme events are projected to occur more frequently under a changing climate. Understanding the mortality risk and burden of the concurrent heatwaves and ozone ($O_3$) pollution may support the formulation of adaptation strategies and early warning systems for concurrent events in the context of climate change.

Objectives: We aimed to estimate the mortality risk and excess deaths of concurrent heatwaves and $O_3$ pollution across 250 counties in China.

Methods: We collected daily mortality, meteorological, and air pollution data for the summer (1 June to 30 September) during 2013-2018. We defined heatwaves and high $O_3$ pollution days, then we divided the identified days into three categories: a) days with only heatwaves (heatwave-only event), b) days with only high $O_3$ pollution (high $O_3$ pollution-only event), and c) days with concurrent heatwaves and high $O_3$ pollution (concurrent event). A generalized linear model with a quasi-Poisson regression was used to estimate the risk of mortality associated with extreme events for each county. Then we conducted a random-effects meta-analysis to pool the county-specific estimates to derive the overall effect estimates. We used mixed-effects meta-regression to identify the drivers of the heterogeneity. Finally, we estimated the excess death attributable to extreme events (heatwave-only, high $O_3$ pollution-only, and concurrent events) from 2013 to 2020.

Results: A higher all-cause mortality risk was associated with exposure to the concurrent heatwaves and high $O_3$ pollution than exposure to a heatwave-only or a high $O_3$ pollution-only event. The effects of a concurrent event on circulatory and respiratory mortality were higher than all-cause and nonaccidental mortality. Sex and age significantly impacted the association of concurrent events and heatwave-only events with all-cause mortality. We estimated that annual average excess deaths attributed to the concurrent events were 6,249 in China from 2017 to 2020, 5.7 times higher than the annual average excess deaths attributed to the concurrent events from 2013 to 2016. The annual average proportion of excess deaths attributed to the concurrent events in the total excess deaths caused by three types of events (heatwave-only events, high $O_3$ pollution-only events, and concurrent events) increased significantly in 2017-2020 (31.50%; 95% CI: 26.73%, 35.53%) compared with 2013-2016 (9.65%; 95% CI: 5.67%, 10.81%). Relative excess risk due to interaction revealed positive additive interaction considering the concurrent effect of heatwaves and high $O_3$ pollution.

Discussion: Our findings may provide scientific basis for establishing a concurrent event early warning system to reduce the adverse health impact of the concurrent heatwaves and high $O_3$ pollution. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP13790.