Forecasting of Indian tourism industry using modeling approach

Renuka Devi; Alok Agrawal; Joydip Dhar; A K Misra

doi:10.1016/j.mex.2024.102723

Forecasting of Indian tourism industry using modeling approach

MethodsX. 2024 Apr 19:12:102723. doi: 10.1016/j.mex.2024.102723. eCollection 2024 Jun.

Authors

Renuka Devi¹, Alok Agrawal¹, Joydip Dhar², A K Misra³

Affiliations

¹ Amity School of Applied Sciences, Amity University Uttar Pradesh, Lucknow Campus, Lucknow 226 028, India.
² Department of Applied Sciences, ABV-Indian Institute of Information Technology and Management, Gwalior 474 015, India.
³ Department of Mathematics, Institute of Science, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi 221 005, India.

Abstract

Currently, India has become one of the largest economies of the world in which tourism and hospitality have significantly contributed; however, the growth rate of tourism industry has been greatly affected during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we have used the modeling approach to analyze and understand the growth pattern of Indian tourism industry. To achieve this, we consider the data of international tourist arrivals before and after the lockdown. The Dickey-Fuller test, AIC and BIC methods are used to obtain the best fitted model and further, the accuracy of obtained model is also analyzed. Data and forecasting indicate that the weather and public holidays significantly affect the tourism industry.

Keywords: Autoregressive integrated moving average method.; Forecasting; Mathematical model; Regression analysis; SARIMA model; Tourism.

Publication types

Review