Spatial and temporal changes in shorebird habitats under different land use scenarios along the Yellow and Bohai Sea coasts in China

Abstract

The effect of coastal wetland loss on shorebird habitat in recent years has been widely reported in previous studies. Various coastal wetland conservation and restoration measures have been implemented or will soon be implemented in China. The extent to which these measures will affect the area and structure of coastal wetland habitat in the future remains unclear. Here, we predicted changes in habitat area and structure for 39 common shorebird species along the coasts of the Yellow and Bohai Seas using a cellular automata-Markov (CA-Markov) land use scenario model and a maximum entropy species distribution model, along with terrain factors (slope, aspect, and digital evaluation model) and climate factors (temperature and precipitation) from the Data Centre for Resources and Environmental Sciences at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, land cover maps interpreted using the human-computer interactive method, and citizen science data of shorebird occurrences derived from eBird, Global Biodiversity Information Facility, and Bird Report. We found that shorebird habitat was most abundant along the coasts of Bohai Bay, Laizhou Bay, and Yancheng. The area of habitat decreased and became increasingly fragmented between 2000 and 2020 for more than half of the 39 species. Under the future business-as-usual scenario, the area of shorebird habitat decreased from 2020 to 2050, and the remaining habitat became increasingly fragmented. Under the ecological protection (EP) scenario, habitat loss was mitigated, and habitat connectivity was improved. The area of habitat was lower in 2050 under the EP scenario than in 2000 for most species, especially threatened species, suggesting that the area of habitat will not return to year-2000 levels under the EP scenario. These results emphasize the need to protect remaining shorebird habitats and implement ecological conservation measures to ensure the long-term preservation of coastal wetlands.

Keywords: Coastal wetland; Ecological protection; Land reclamation; Scenario prediction; Shorebird.