Introduction: Blood-based biomarkers for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) have been studied individually; however, we considered a panel of proteins to investigate AAA prognosis and its potential to improve predictive accuracy.
Materials and methods: Using a prospectively recruited cohort of patients with/without AAA (n = 452), we conducted a prognostic study to develop a model that accurately predicts AAA outcomes using clinical features and circulating biomarker levels. Serum concentrations of 9 biomarkers were measured at baseline, and the cohort was followed for 2 years. The primary outcome was major adverse aortic event (MAAE; composite of rapid AAA expansion [>0.5 cm/6 months or >1 cm/12 months], AAA intervention, or AAA rupture). Using 10-fold cross-validation, we trained a random forest model to predict 2 year MAAE using (1) clinical characteristics, (2) biomarkers, and (3) clinical characteristics and biomarkers.
Results: Two-year MAAE occurred in 114 (25%) patients. Two proteins were significantly elevated in patients with AAA compared with those without AAA (angiopoietin-2 and aggrecan), composing the protein panel. For predicting 2 year MAAE, our random forest model achieved area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.74 using clinical features alone, and the addition of the 2-protein panel improved performance to AUROC 0.86.
Conclusions: Using a combination of clinical/biomarker data, we developed a model that accurately predicts 2 year MAAE.
Keywords: abdominal aortic aneurysm; biomarkers; prediction; prognosis.