A novel robust evaluation approach to improve systematic behavior of failure safety in water supply system under various ellipsoid uncertainties

Abstract

This study proposes a novel robust optimization approach for an integrated water supply system, wherein the decision-makers attempt to improve failure safety of system under various uncertainty strategies. To cope with uncertainty, the ellipsoid uncertainty set is assumed to evaluate the best feasible solution in the direction of water supply under various strategies. We assessed the case of Hamoun watershed, a water-stressed watershed in southeastern of Iran, to evaluate the developed robust optimization model. In the following, the comparative feasibility under uncertainty levels is conducted to analyze the impacts of simulation strategies on the status of robust model. Based on the final results, the reliability of the model's objective functions experienced an increasing trend ( $58.3\%$ ), and the objective function values under the uncertainty strategies is greatly improved. The findings of the analysis show that the robust strategies in response to the failure safety achieve outstanding optimal objectives under uncertainty.

Keywords: Failure of system; Performance of system; Rainfall uncertainty; Robust optimization; Water shortage; Water supply.