Associations between heat waves and chronic kidney disease in China: The modifying role of land cover

Abstract

The increasing frequency of heat waves under the global urbanization and climate change background poses elevating risks of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Nevertheless, there has been no evidence on associations between long-term exposures to heat waves and CKD as well as the modifying effects of land cover patterns. Based on a national representative population-based survey on CKD covering 47,086 adults and high spatial resolution datasets on temperature and land cover data, we found that annual days of exposure to heat waves were associated with increased odds of CKD prevalence. For one day/year increases in HW_975_4d (above 97.5 % of annual maximum temperature and lasting for at least 4 consecutive days), the odds ratio (OR) of CKD was 1.14 (95 %CI: 1.12, 1.15). Meanwhile, stronger associations were observed in regions with lower urbanicity [rural: 1.14 (95 %CI: 1.12, 1.16) vs urban: 1.07 (95 %CI: 1.03, 1.11), Pinteraction < 0.001], lower water body coverage [lower: 1.14 (95 %CI: 1.12, 1.16) vs higher: 1.02 (95 %CI: 0.98, 1.05), Pinteraction < 0.001], and lower impervious area coverage [lower: 1.16 (95 %CI: 1.14, 1.18) vs higher: 1.06 (95 %CI: 1.03, 1.10), Pinteraction = 0.008]. In addition, this study found disparities in modifying effects of water bodies and impervious areas in rural and urban settings. In rural regions, the associations between heat waves and CKD prevalence showed a consistent decreasing trend with increases in both proportions of water bodies and impervious areas (Pinteraction < 0.05). Nevertheless, in urban regions, we observed significant effect modification by water bodies, but not by impervious areas. Our study indicates the need for targeted land planning as part of adapting to the kidney impacts of heat waves, with a focus on urbanization in rural regions, as well as water body construction and utilization in both rural and urban regions.

Keywords: Chronic kidney disease; Heat wave; Land cover; Urbanization; Urban–rural disparity.