Potential global distribution of Setaria italica, an important species for dryland agriculture in the context of climate change

Jingtian Yang; Xue Jiang; Yunlong Ma; Mei Liu; Zixi Shama; Jiayi Li; Yi Huang

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0301751

Potential global distribution of Setaria italica, an important species for dryland agriculture in the context of climate change

PLoS One. 2024 Apr 16;19(4):e0301751. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0301751. eCollection 2024.

Authors

Jingtian Yang¹, Xue Jiang², Yunlong Ma², Mei Liu¹, Zixi Shama¹, Jiayi Li¹, Yi Huang^{2

3}

Affiliations

¹ Ecological Security and Protection Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Mianyang Normal University, Mianyang, 621000, China.
² Engineering Research Center for Forest and Grassland Disaster Prevention and Reduction, Mianyang Normal University, Mianyang, 621000, China.
³ China College of Science, Tibet University, Lhasa, 850012, China.

Abstract

Setaria italica (S. italica, Linnaeus, 1753) is a drought-resistant, barren-tolerant, and widely adapted C-4 crop that plays a vital role in maintaining agricultural and economic stability in arid and barren regions of the world. However, the potential habitat of S. italica under current and future climate scenarios remains to be explored. Predicting the potential global geographic distribution of S. italica and clarifying its ecological requirements can help promote sustainable agriculture, which is crucial for addressing the global food crisis. In this study, we predicted the potential global geographic distribution of S. italica based on 3,154 global distribution records using the Maxent model and ArcGIS software. We assessed the constraints on its potential distribution based on the contribution of environmental factors variables. The predictive accuracy of the Maxent model was evaluated using AUC values, TSS values, and Kappa statistics, respectively. The results showed that the Maxent model had a high prediction accuracy, and the simulation results were also reliable; the total suitable habitats of S. italica is 5.54×107 km2, which mainly included the United States (North America), Brazil (South America), Australia (Oceania), China, India (Asia), and the Russian Federation (Europe). The most suitable habitat of S. italica was 0.52×107 km2, accounting for 9.44% of the total areas, mainly in the United States, India, the Russian Federation, and China. Soil and precipitation (driest monthly precipitation, hottest seasonal precipitation) are the most critical factors limiting the potential distribution of S. italica. Compared with the modern potential distribution, we predict that the four future climate change scenarios will result in varying reductions in the possible geographic ranges of S. italica. Overall, climate change may significantly affect the global distribution of S. italica, altering its worldwide production and trade patterns.

Copyright: © 2024 Yang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

MeSH terms

Agriculture
Asia
Brazil
Climate Change*
Ecosystem
Setaria Plant*

Grants and funding

This work was supported by grants from The Scientific research initiation project of Mianyang Normal University (QD2019A13, QD2021A37 and QD2023A01; URL: https://www.mtc.edu.cn/), the Funding of the Open Project from the Ecological Security and Protection Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province (ESP1608, ESP2008, ESP2201 and ESP2204; URL: https://zdsys.mtc.edu.cn/), the Sichuan Provincial Education Department Scientific Research Project (15ZB0283; URL:http://edu.sc.gov.cn/), the Sichuan Provincial Science and Technology Department Project (2023NSFSC0750; URL: https://kjt.sc.gov.cn/). The funders had a role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. There was no additional external funding received for this study.