Spatial and temporal analysis of African swine fever front-wave velocity in wild boar: implications for surveillance and control strategies

Marta Martínez Avilés; Fernando Montes; Irene Sacristán; Ana de la Torre; Irene Iglesias

doi:10.3389/fvets.2024.1353983

Spatial and temporal analysis of African swine fever front-wave velocity in wild boar: implications for surveillance and control strategies

Front Vet Sci. 2024 Mar 25:11:1353983. doi: 10.3389/fvets.2024.1353983. eCollection 2024.

Authors

Marta Martínez Avilés¹, Fernando Montes², Irene Sacristán¹, Ana de la Torre¹, Irene Iglesias¹

Affiliations

¹ Epidemiology and Environmental Health Group, Department of Infectious Animal Diseases and Global Health, Animal Health Research Centre, National Centre Institute for Agriculture and Food Research and Technology, Spanish National Research Council (CISA-INIA-CSIC), Madrid, Spain.
² Center for International Forestry Research, National Centre Institute for Agriculture and Food Research and Technology, Spanish National Research Council (CIFOR, INIA-CSIC), Madrid, Spain.

Abstract

The front-wave velocity of African swine fever (ASF) virus spread is depicted through a retrospective spatial and temporal analyses of wild boar outbreaks from Jan. 2014 to Jan. 2022 in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Eastern Poland-regions responsible for more than 50% of all wild boar cases in the EU. The study uses empirical semivariograms in a universal kriging model to assess spatial autocorrelation in notification dates and identifies a discernable large-scale spatial trend. The critical parameter of ASF front-wave velocity was identified (Mean = 66.33 km/month, SD = 163.24) in the whole study area, and explored the variations across countries, wild boar habitat suitability, seasons, and the study period. Statistical differences in front-wave velocity values among countries and temporal clusters are explored, shedding light on potential factors influencing ASF transmission dynamics. The implications of these findings for surveillance and control strategies are discussed.

Keywords: ASF virus distribution; ASF virus spread; African swine fever; disease dynamics; spatial epidemiology; velocity; wild boar.

Grants and funding

The author(s) declare financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. This research was funded by the Horizon 2020 Program of the European Union through the European Project H2020 “VACDIVA-A Safe DIVA vaccine for African Swine Fever control and eradication” project (grant agreement no. 862874).