Cancer mortality predictions for 2024 in selected Asian countries and Australia with focus on stomach cancer

Claudia Santucci; Silvia Mignozzi; Fabio Levi; Matteo Malvezzi; Paola Bertuccio; Anna Odone; M Constanza Camargo; Carlo La Vecchia; Eva Negri

doi:10.1097/CEJ.0000000000000889

Cancer mortality predictions for 2024 in selected Asian countries and Australia with focus on stomach cancer

Eur J Cancer Prev. 2024 Apr 9. doi: 10.1097/CEJ.0000000000000889. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Claudia Santucci¹, Silvia Mignozzi¹, Fabio Levi², Matteo Malvezzi³, Paola Bertuccio⁴, Anna Odone^{4

5}, M Constanza Camargo⁶, Carlo La Vecchia¹, Eva Negri⁷

Affiliations

¹ Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, University of Milan, Milan, Italy.
² Department of Epidemiology and Health Services Research, Centre for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
³ Department of Medicine and Surgery, University of Parma, Parma.
⁴ Department of Public Health, Experimental and Forensic Medicine, University of Pavia.
⁵ Medical Direction, Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Pavia, Italy.
⁶ Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, Maryland, USA.
⁷ Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy.

PMID: 38595154
DOI: 10.1097/CEJ.0000000000000889

Abstract

Introduction: We estimated cancer mortality figures in five major Asian countries and Australia for 2024, focusing on stomach cancer, a leading cause of cancer-related deaths in Eastern Asia.

Methods: We computed country- and sex-specific annual age-standardized rates (ASRs) for total cancers and the 10 most common cancer sites, using WHO and the United Nations Population Division databases from 1970 to 2021 or the latest available year. We predicted figures for 2024 and estimated the number of avoided cancer deaths in 1994-2024.

Results: All cancers combined ASR declined between 2015-2019 and 2024 across considered countries and sexes. In 2024, the lowest predicted male rate is in the Philippines (75.0/100 000) and the highest in Australia (94.2/100 000). The Republic of Korea is predicted to have the lowest female ASR (42.1/100 000) while the Philippines the highest (74.5/100 000). Over the last three decades, 121 300 deaths were estimated to be avoided in Hong Kong SAR, 69 500 in Israel, 1 246 300 in Japan, 653 300 in the Republic of Korea, 303 300 in Australia, and 89 700 among Philippine men. Mortality from stomach cancer has been decreasing since 1970 in all considered countries and both sexes. Significant decreases are at all age groups Male rates remain, however, high in Japan (8.7/100 000) and the Republic of Korea (6.2/100 000).

Conclusion: Declining cancer mortality is predicted in the considered countries, notably reducing stomach cancer burden. Stomach cancer, however, remains a major public health issue in East Asia.