Corrugated packaging for express grew by 90 times to 16.5 Mt y-1 in China, where 81% of recent global express delivery growth occurred. However, the environmental impacts of production, usage, disposal, and recycling of corrugated boxes under the entire supply chain remain unclear. Here, we estimate the magnitudes, drivers, and mitigation potentials of cradle-to-grave life-cycle carbon footprint (CF) and three colors of water footprints (WFs) for corrugated cardboard packaging in China. Over 2007 to 2021, CF, blue and gray WFs per unit package decreased by 45%, 60%, and 84%, respectively, while green WF increased by 23% with growing imports of virgin pulp and China's waste ban. National total CF and WFs were 21 to 102 folded with the scale effects. Only a combination of the supply chain reconstruction, lighter single-piece packaging, and increased recycling rate can possibly reduce the environmental footprints by 24 to 44% by 2035.
Keywords: carbon footprint; life-cycle assessment; open-loop recycling; temporal variation; water footprint.