Background: Accurate preoperative prediction of lymph node (LN) involvement is essential for the management of early gastric cancer (EGC). Our objective was to formulate a potent nomogram for predicting LN involvement in EGC by leveraging an innovative predictor of tumor budding.
Methods: We assembled a cohort of EGC patients who underwent radical surgery at two tertiary cancer centers. Tumor budding was stratified by using an optimal cutoff value and integrated with other clinicopathological variables to ascertain the risk factors associated with LN involvement. A nomogram was developed and its predictive performance was assessed by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration plots. In addition, we conducted decision curve analysis to evaluate its clinical utility. Finally, an external validation was conducted by using an independent cohort.
Results: Finally, 307 eligible patients (215 in the primary cohort and 92 in the validation cohort) were included. Tumor budding, categorized by a count of two, exhibited a robust association with LN involvement (OR 14.12, p = 0.012). Other significant risk factors include lymphovascular invasion, depth of tumor invasion, ulceration, and tumor differentiation. Notably, the nomogram demonstrated exceptional discriminative power (area under the ROC curve, 0.872 in the primary cohort and 0.885 in the validation cohort) and precise predictive capabilities. Furthermore, the nomogram showed notable clinical applicability through decision curve analysis, particularly in endoscopic curability C-2, by mitigating the risk of overtreatment.
Conclusions: Tumor budding is a robust predictor of LN involvement in EGC. The incorporation of tumor budding into a nomogram is an effective strategy, thereby informing and enhancing clinical decision-making.
Keywords: Early gastric cancer; Endoscopic submucosal dissection; Lymph node involvement; Nomogram; Tumor budding.
© 2024. Society of Surgical Oncology.