The chronology and phylogeny of bacterial evolution are difficult to reconstruct due to a scarce fossil record. The analysis of bacterial genomes remains challenging because of large sequence divergence, the plasticity of bacterial genomes due to frequent gene loss, horizontal gene transfer, and differences in selective pressure from one locus to another. Therefore, taking advantage of the rich and rapidly accumulating genomic data requires accurate modeling of genome evolution. An important technical consideration is that loci with high effective mutation rates may diverge beyond the detection limit of the alignment algorithms used, biasing the genome-wide divergence estimates toward smaller divergences. In this article, we propose a novel method to gain insight into bacterial evolution based on statistical properties of genome comparisons. We find that the length distribution of sequence matches is shaped by the effective mutation rates of different loci, by the horizontal transfers, and by the aligner sensitivity. Based on these inputs, we build a model and show that it accounts for the empirically observed distributions, taking the Enterobacteriaceae family as an example. Our method allows to distinguish segments of vertical and horizontal origins and to estimate the time divergence and exchange rate between any pair of taxa from genome-wide alignments. Based on the estimated time divergences, we construct a time-calibrated phylogenetic tree to demonstrate the accuracy of the method.
Keywords: bacterial evolution; horizontal gene transfer; maximal exact matches; molecular clock; mutation rate.