Comprehensive risk assessment of typhoon disasters in China's coastal areas based on multi-source geographic big data

Zhenkang Wang; Nan Xia; Xin Zhao; XianKai Ji; Jiechen Wang

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171815

Comprehensive risk assessment of typhoon disasters in China's coastal areas based on multi-source geographic big data

Sci Total Environ. 2024 May 20:926:171815. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171815. Epub 2024 Mar 19.

Authors

Zhenkang Wang¹, Nan Xia², Xin Zhao¹, XianKai Ji¹, Jiechen Wang³

Affiliations

¹ Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Technology, School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210046, China; Department of Geographic Information Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210046, China.
² Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Technology, School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210046, China; Department of Geographic Information Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210046, China; Collaborative Innovation Center for the South Sea Studies, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China. Electronic address: xianan@nju.edu.cn.
³ Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Technology, School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210046, China; Department of Geographic Information Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210046, China; Collaborative Innovation Center for the South Sea Studies, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China; Collaborative Innovation Center of Novel Software Technology and Industrialization, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210046, China. Electronic address: wangjiechen@nju.edu.cn.

PMID: 38513859
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171815

Abstract

Typhoons can bring substantial casualties and economic ramifications, and effective prevention strategies necessitate a comprehensive risk assessment. Nevertheless, existing studies on its comprehensive risk assessment are characterized by coarse spatial scales, limited incorporation of geographic big data, and rarely considering disaster mitigation capacity. To address these problems, this study combined multi-source geographic big data to develop the Comprehensive Risk Assessment Model (CRAM). The model integrated 17 indicators from 4 categories of factors, including exposure, vulnerability, hazard, and mitigation capacity. A subjective-objective combination weighting method was introduced to generate the indicator weights, and comprehensive risk index of typhoon disasters was calculated for 987 counties along China's coastal regions. Results revealed a pronounced spatial heterogeneity of the comprehensive typhoon risk, which exhibited an overall decreasing trend from the southeast coastal areas toward the northwest inland territories. 61.7 % of the counties exhibited a medium-to-high level of comprehensive risk, and counties with very-high risks are predominantly concentrated in the Shandong Peninsula, Yangtze River Delta, Hokkien Golden Triangle, Greater Bay Area, Leizhou Peninsula, and Hainan Province, mainly due to high exposure and hazard factors. The correlation coefficient between the risk assessment results and typhoon-induced direct economic losses reached 0.702, indicating the effectiveness and reliability of the CRAM. Meanwhile, indicators from intrinsic attributes of typhoons and geographic big data had pronounced importance, and regional mitigation capacity should be improved. Our proposed method can help to scientifically understand spatial patterns of comprehensive risk and mitigate the effects of typhoon disasters in China's coastal regions.

Keywords: Comprehensive risk assessment model; County-level assessment; Disaster mitigation capacity; Geographic big data; Typhoon disaster.