Assessing total cost of driving competitiveness of zero-emission trucks

Catherine Ledna; Matteo Muratori; Arthur Yip; Paige Jadun; Christopher Hoehne; Kara Podkaminer

doi:10.1016/j.isci.2024.109385

Assessing total cost of driving competitiveness of zero-emission trucks

iScience. 2024 Mar 2;27(4):109385. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2024.109385. eCollection 2024 Apr 19.

Authors

Catherine Ledna¹, Matteo Muratori¹, Arthur Yip¹, Paige Jadun¹, Christopher Hoehne¹, Kara Podkaminer²

Affiliations

¹ National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO, USA.
² US Department of Energy, Washington, DC, USA.

Abstract

Medium- and heavy-duty vehicles are 21% of US transportation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and a major source of air pollution. We explore how the total cost of driving (TCD) of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), including battery electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (EVs and FCEVs), could evolve under alternative scenarios. With continued improvements in vehicles and fuels, ZEVs can rapidly become viable, potentially reaching TCD parity or better compared to diesel vehicles by 2035 for all market segments. For heavy long-haul trucks, EVs become competitive on a TCD basis at charging costs below $0.18/kWh, while FCEVs become competitive on a TCD basis at hydrogen costs below $5/kg. A full transition to ZEV sales by 2035 results in 65% emissions reductions by 2050 compared to 2019 without supportive policies. Incentives such as the Inflation Reduction Act vehicle purchase credits further accelerate ZEV TCD competitiveness with major adoption opportunities over the next five years.

Keywords: Energy policy; Energy resources; Engineering.