Objectives: This study aimed to identify long-term distinct trajectories of multimorbidity with ageing from 50 to 85 years among Chinese older adults and examine the relationship between exposure to early-life adversity (ELA; including specific types of adversity and accumulation of different adversities) and these long-term multimorbidity trajectories.
Design: The group-based trajectory models identified long-term multimorbidity trajectories. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to examine the relationship between ELA and the identified multimorbidity trajectories.
Setting: This study used data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS, 2011-2018) and the 2014 Life History Survey.
Participants: We used data from 9112 respondents (aged 60 and above) of the 2018 wave of CHARLS.
Outcome measures: Each respondent's history of chronic conditions and experiences of ELA were collected from the 2011-2018 waves of CHARLS and the 2014 Life History Survey.
Results: Four heterogeneous long-term trajectories of multimorbidity development were identified: 'maintaining-low' (19.1%), 'low onset-rapidly increasing' (23.3%), 'middle onset-moderately increasing' (41.5%) and 'chronically-high' (16.2%). Our findings indicated that the heterogeneity can be explained by ELA experiences. Across various types of different ELA experiences, exposure to food insufficiency (relative risk ratios from 1.372 (95% CI 1.190 to 1.582) to 1.780 (95% CI 1.472 to 2.152)) and parental quarrel/divorce (relative risk ratios from 1.181 (95% CI 1.000 to 1.394) to 1.262 (95% CI 1.038 to 1.536)) had the most prominent associations with health deterioration. The accumulation of more different ELA experiences was associated with a higher relative risk of developing more severe multimorbidity trajectories (relative risk ratio for five to seven ELAs and chronically high trajectory: 7.555, 95% CI 4.993 to 11.431).
Conclusions: There are heterogeneous long-term trajectories of multimorbidity in Chinese older adults, and the risk of multimorbidity associated with ELA accumulates over the lifespan. Our findings highlight the role of a supportive early-life family environment in promoting health development across the lifespan, advocating for the integration of life-course approaches to implementing health disparity interventions.
Keywords: Adverse events; Aging; Chronic Disease.
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