Despite the increasing availability of genomic data and enhanced data analysis procedures, predicting the severity of associated diseases remains elusive in the absence of clinical descriptors. To address this challenge, we have focused on the KV7.2 voltage-gated potassium channel gene (KCNQ2), known for its link to developmental delays and various epilepsies, including self-limited benign familial neonatal epilepsy and epileptic encephalopathy. Genome-wide tools often exhibit a tendency to overestimate deleterious mutations, frequently overlooking tolerated variants, and lack the capacity to discriminate variant severity. This study introduces a novel approach by evaluating multiple machine learning (ML) protocols and descriptors. The combination of genomic information with a novel Variant Frequency Index (VFI) builds a robust foundation for constructing reliable gene-specific ML models. The ensemble model, MLe-KCNQ2, formed through logistic regression, support vector machine, random forest and gradient boosting algorithms, achieves specificity and sensitivity values surpassing 0.95 (AUC-ROC > 0.98). The ensemble MLe-KCNQ2 model also categorizes pathogenic mutations as benign or severe, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) above 0.67. This study not only presents a transferable methodology for accurately classifying KCNQ2 missense variants, but also provides valuable insights for clinical counseling and aids in the determination of variant severity. The research context emphasizes the necessity of precise variant classification, especially for genes like KCNQ2, contributing to the broader understanding of gene-specific challenges in the field of genomic research. The MLe-KCNQ2 model stands as a promising tool for enhancing clinical decision making and prognosis in the realm of KCNQ2-related pathologies.
Keywords: KCNQ; epilepsy; machine learning; neurodevelopmental disorder; prognosis.