Development of a Multi-Parametric ultrasonography nomogram for prediction of invasiveness in ductal carcinoma in situ

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the independent risk variables associated with the potential invasiveness of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) on multi-parametric ultrasonography, and further construct a nomogram for risk assessment.

Methods: Consecutive patients from January 2017 to December 2022 who were suspected of having ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) based on magnetic resonance imaging or mammography were prospectively enrolled. Histopathological findings after surgical resection served as the gold standard. Grayscale ultrasound, Doppler ultrasound, shear wave elastography (SWE), and contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) examinations were preoperative performed. Binary logistic regression was used for multifactorial analysis to identify independent risk factors from multi-parametric ultrasonography. The correlation between independent risk factors and pathological prognostic markers was analyzed. The predictive efficacy of DCIS associated with invasiveness was assessed by logistic analysis, and a nomogram was established.

Results: A total of 250 DCIS lesions were enrolled from 249 patients, comprising 85 pure DCIS and 165 DCIS with invasion (DCIS-IDC), of which 41 exhibited micro-invasion. The multivariate analysis identified independent risk factors for DCIS with invasion on multi-parametric ultrasonography, including image size (>2cm), Doppler ultrasound RI (≥0.72), SWE's Emax (≥66.4 kPa), hyper-enhancement, centripetal enhancement, increased surrounding vessel, and no contrast agent retention on CEUS. These factors correlated with histological grade, Ki-67, and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) (P < 0.1). The multi-parametric ultrasound approach demonstrated good predictive performance (sensitivity 89.7 %, specificity 73.8 %, AUC 0.903), surpassing single US modality or combinations with SWE or CEUS modalities. Utilizing these factors, a predictive nomogram achieved a respectable performance (AUC of 0.889) for predicting DCIS with invasion. Additionally, a separate nomogram for predicting DCIS with micro-invasion, incorporating independent risk factors such as RI (≥0.72), SWE's Emax (≥65.2 kPa), and centripetal enhancement, demonstrated an AUC of 0.867.

Conclusion: Multi-parametric ultrasonography demonstrates good discriminatory ability in predicting both DCIS with invasion and micro-invasion through the analysis of lesion morphology, stiffness, neovascular architecture, and perfusion. The use of a nomogram based on ultrasonographic images offers an intuitive and effective method for assessing the risk of invasion in DCIS. Although the nomogram is not currently considered a clinically applicable diagnostic tool due to its AUC being below the threshold of 0.9, further research and development are anticipated to yield positive outcomes and enhance its viability for clinical utilization.

Keywords: DCIS; Invasion; Multi-parametric; Nomogram; Prediction; Ultrasonography.