Sensitivities of ozone to its precursors during heavy ozone pollution events in the Yangtze River Delta using the adjoint method

Yu-Hao Mao; Yongjie Shang; Hong Liao; Hansen Cao; Zhen Qu; Daven K Henze

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171585

Sensitivities of ozone to its precursors during heavy ozone pollution events in the Yangtze River Delta using the adjoint method

Sci Total Environ. 2024 May 15:925:171585. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171585. Epub 2024 Mar 9.

Authors

Yu-Hao Mao¹, Yongjie Shang², Hong Liao³, Hansen Cao⁴, Zhen Qu⁴, Daven K Henze⁴

Affiliations

¹ Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control/Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), Nanjing 210044, China; Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education(KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD)/International Joint Research Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC), NUIST, Nanjing 210044, China. Electronic address: yhmao@nuist.edu.cn.
² Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control/Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), Nanjing 210044, China.
³ Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control/Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), Nanjing 210044, China; Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education(KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD)/International Joint Research Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC), NUIST, Nanjing 210044, China.
⁴ Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.

PMID: 38462008
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171585

Abstract

Although the concentrations of five basic ambient air pollutants in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) have been reduced since the implementation of the "Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan" in 2013, the ozone concentrations still increase. In order to explore the causes of ozone pollution in YRD, we use the GEOS-Chem and its adjoint model to study the sensitivities of ozone to its precursor emissions from different source regions and emission sectors during heavy ozone pollution events under typical circulation patterns. The Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC) of Tsinghua University and 0.25° × 0.3125° nested grids are adopted in the model. By using the T-mode principal component analysis (T-PCA), the circulation patterns of heavy ozone pollution days (observed MDA8 O₃ concentrations ≥160 μg m^-3) in Nanjing located in the center area of YRD from 2013 to 2019 are divided into four types, with the main features of Siberian Low, Lake Balkhash High, Northeast China Low, Yellow Sea High, and southeast wind at the surface. The adjoint results show that the contributions of emissions emitted from Jiangsu and Zhejiang are the largest to heavy ozone pollution in Nanjing. The 10 % reduction of anthropogenic NO_x and NMVOCs emissions in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai could reduce the ozone concentrations in Nanjing by up to 3.40 μg m^-3 and 0.96 μg m^-3, respectively. However, the reduction of local NMVOCs emissions has little effect on ozone concentrations in Nanjing, and the reduction of local NO_x emissions would even increase ozone pollution. For different emissions sectors, industry emissions account for 31 %-74 % of ozone pollution in Nanjing, followed by transportation emissions (18 %-49 %). This study could provide the scientific basis for forecasting ozone pollution events and formulating accurate strategies of emission reduction.

Keywords: Adjoint method; Circulation patterns; Heavy ozone pollution; Precursor emissions; Source attribution.