Aims and objectives: To assess the prognostic accuracy of the surprise question (SQ) when used by nurses working in hospital wards to determine 1-year mortality in acutely hospitalised older patients.
Background: The predictive accuracy of the SQ, when used by general nurses caring for older hospitalised patients, has not been comprehensively studied.
Design: A prospective cohort study.
Methods: This cohort study recruited consecutive 10,139 older patients (aged ≥65 years) who were admitted to Taipei City Hospital and were evaluated for the needs of palliative care in 2015. All patients were followed up for 12 months or until their death. The c-statistic value was calculated to indicate the predictive accuracy of the SQ and Palliative Care Screening Tool (PCST).
Results: Of all participants, 18.8% and 18.6% had a SQ response of 'no' and a PCST score ≥4, respectively. After controlling for other covariates, an SQ response of 'no' (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.83-2.31) and a PCST score ≥4 (AHR = 1.50; 95% CI: 1.29-1.75) were found to be the independent predictors for patients' 12-month mortality. The C-statistic values of the SQ and the PCST at recognising patients in their last year of life were .663 and .670, respectively. Moreover, there was moderate concordance (k = .44) between the SQ and the PCST in predicting 12-month mortality.
Conclusions: SQ response of 'no' and a PCST score ≥4 were independent predictors of 12-month mortality in older patients.
Relevance to clinical practice: The SQ, when used by nurses working in hospital wards, is effective in identifying older patients nearing the end of life, as well as in providing advance care planning for patients.
Patient or public contribution: Patients' palliative care needs at admission were assessed by general nurses using the SQ and PCST.
Keywords: cohort study; end-of-life; mortality; palliative care screening tool; surprise question.
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