Reconstruct recent multi-population migration history by using identical-by-descent sharing

Abstract

Identical-by-descent (IBD) is a fundamental genomic characteristic in population genetics and has been widely used for population history reconstruction. However, limited by the nature of IBD, which could only capture the relationship between two individuals/haplotypes, existing IBD-based history inference is constrained to two populations. In this study, we propose a novel framework by leveraging IBD sharing in multi-population and develop a method, MatrixIBD, to reconstruct recent multi-population migration history. Specifically, we employ the structured coalescent theory to precisely model the genealogical process and then estimate the IBD sharing across multiple populations. Within our model, we establish a theoretical connection between migration history and IBD sharing. Our method is rigorously evaluated through simulations, revealing its remarkable accuracy and robustness. Furthermore, we apply MatrixIBD to Central and South Asia in the Human Genome Diversity Project and successfully reconstruct the recent migration history of three closely related populations in South Asia. By taking into account the IBD sharing across multiple populations simultaneously, MatrixIBD enables us to attain clearer and more comprehensive insights into the history of regions characterized by complex migration dynamics. This approach provides a holistic perspective on intricate patterns embedded within the recent population migration history.

Keywords: Gene flow; IBD sharing; Migration history; Population genetics; Structured coalescent theory.