Background and objectives: This study presents a budget impact analysis (BIA) conducted in Saudi Arabia, evaluating the cost implications of adopting semaglutide, tirzepatide, or dulaglutide in the management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients. The analysis aims to assess the individual budgetary impact of these treatment options on healthcare budgets and provide insights for decision-makers.
Methods: A prevalence-based BIA was developed using real-world and clinical trials data. The model considered disease epidemiology, medication prices, diabetes management expenses, cardiovascular (CV) complications costs, and weight reduction savings over a 5-year time horizon. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (OWSA, PSA) were performed to assess the robustness of the results.
Results: Over a 5-year period, the cumulative budget impact for semaglutide, tirzepatide, and dulaglutide were 85,923,089 USD, 169,790,195 USD, and 94,558,356 USD, respectively. Hypothetical scenarios considering price parity between semaglutide and tirzepatide are associated with financial impacts of 85,923,091 USD and 86,475,335 USD, respectively. In the public sector, semaglutide showed the lowest incidence of 3-point major adverse CV events (3P-MACE), with tirzepatide leading in weight loss and HbA1c reduction, and dulaglutide presenting the highest 3P-MACE rates and least improvements in HbA1c and weight. A breakeven analysis suggested that tirzepatide's list price would need to be $199.91 lower than its current list price to achieve budget impact parity with semaglutide based on currently available evidence. Results from the OWSA suggested that risk reductions for CV events were key drivers of budget impact. PSA results were confirmatory of base-case analyses.
Conclusions: CV cost-offsets and drug acquisition considerations may make semaglutide a favorable use of resources for Saudi budget planners and decision-makers. These results were robust to assumptions regarding the list price of tirzepatide.
Keywords: Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists; I; I1; I18; I19; Saudi Arabia; budget impact analysis; semaglutide; tirzepatide; type 2 diabetes mellitus.