Socioeconomic factors and mitigation potentials are essential drivers of the dynamics of nutrient emissions, yet these drivers are rarely examined at broad spatiotemporal scales. Here, we combine material flow analysis and geospatial analysis to examine the past and future changes of nitrogen and phosphorus emissions in China. Results show that anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus emissions increased by 17% and 32% during 2000-2019, respectively. Meanwhile, many regions witnessed decreasing nitrogen emissions but rising phosphorus discharged to waterbody, leading to a 20% decrease in the nitrogen/phosphorus ratio. In addition to many prominent factors like fertilizer use, the increasing impervious land area around cities is a notable factor driving the emissions, indicating the urgency to limit building expansion, especially in North China Plain and other less-developed regions. Improving land-use efficiency and consuming behaviors could reduce nitrogen and phosphorus emissions by 65-77% in 2030, but the nitrogen/phosphorus ratio will increase unintendedly due to larger reduction potentials for phosphorus, which may deteriorate the aquatic ecosystem. We highlight that nitrogen and phosphorus emissions should be reduced with coordinated but differentiated measures by prioritizing nitrogen reduction through cropland and food-system management.
Keywords: N and P imbalance; driving factors; land-use change; mitigation potentials; nutrient emissions.