Physical activity during pregnancy and the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis

Abstract

Background: Previous research has indicated the inverse association between physical activity (PA) and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). However, the dose-response relationship currently remains undetermined. This study aims to explore the dose-response relationship between PA during the first and second trimesters of pregnancy and GDM risk.

Methods: Studies on the relationship between PA during pregnancy and GDM risk published before April 25, 2023, were searched for in six databases. According to the inclusion and exclusion criteria, all literature was screened for eligibility. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) was used to assess risk of bias. Publication bias was examined using funnel plots, Begg's and Egger's tests, as well as trim-and-fill analysis. We harmonized exposure estimates of PA during pregnancy to the common unit of the metabolic equivalent of task (MET)-h/week. Restricted cubic splines were used to model the dose-response relationship. The criteria from the World Cancer Research Fund were used to assess the certainty of evidence across outcomes. All analyses were performed using Stata 15.1.

Results: The results indicated that in contrast with the lowest level of PA, promoting the highest PA level lowers the risk of GDM by 36% (RR = 0.64, 95%CI: 0.53 ~ 0.78). We found a curvilinear dose-response association between PA during the first trimester and incident GDM (P_nonlinearity = 0.012). Compared to inactive pregnant women, for those who achieved the guidelines-suggested minimum level (10 MET-h/week) of PA during the first trimester, the GDM risk was decreased by 13% (RR = 0.87, 95%CI: 0.79 ~ 0.96). A linear relationship was found between PA during the second trimester and the GDM risk (P_nonlinearity = 0.276). The results with a restricted cubic spline model suggested that pregnant women who accumulate 10 MET-h/week have a 1% reduced risk of GDM compared to completely inactive individuals. Twice (20 MET-h/week) or a higher amount of PA (50 MET-h/week) contributed to further reductions in GDM risk.

Conclusion: There is a dose-response relationship between higher levels of PA in both the first and second trimesters and reduced risk of GDM; the relationship is stronger in the first trimester. Increasing PA during pregnancy can prevent the development of GDM.

Prospero registration number: CRD42023420564.

Keywords: Dose–response; Gestational diabetes mellitus; Meta-analysis; Physical activity; Systematic review.