The effect of nonpharmaceutical interventions on influenza virus transmission

Abstract

Background: The use of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during severe acute respiratory syndrome 2019 (COVID-19) outbreaks may influence the spread of influenza viruses. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of NPIs against SARS-CoV-2 on the epidemiological features of the influenza season in China.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective observational study analyzing influenza monitoring data obtained from the China National Influenza Center between 2011 and 2023. We compared the changes in influenza-positive patients in the pre-COVID-19 epidemic, during the COVID-19 epidemic, and post-COVID-19 epidemic phases to evaluate the effect of NPIs on influenza virus transmission.

Results: NPIs targeting COVID-19 significantly suppressed influenza activity in China from 2019 to 2022. In the seventh week after the implementation of the NPIs, the number of influenza-positive patients decreased by 97.46% in southern regions of China and 90.31% in northern regions of China. However, the lifting of these policies in December 2022 led to an unprecedented surge in influenza-positive cases in autumn and winter from 2022 to 2023. The percentage of positive influenza cases increased by 206.41% (p < 0.001), with high positivity rates reported in both the northern and southern regions of China.

Conclusion: Our findings suggest that NPIs against SARS-CoV-2 are effective at controlling influenza epidemics but may compromise individuals' immunity to the virus.

Keywords: COVID-19; China; infection; influenza virus; nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs).