Personalised preinterventional risk stratification of mortality, length of stay and hospitalisation costs in transcatheter aortic valve implantation using a machine learning algorithm: a pilot trial

Abstract

Introduction: Risk stratification based on Euroscore II (ESII) is used in some centres to assist decisions to perform transcatheter aortic valve implant (TAVI) procedures. ESII is a generic, non-TAVI-specific metric, and its performance fades for mortality at follow-up longer than 30 days. We investigated if a TAVI-specific predictive model could achieve improved predictive preinterventional accuracy of 1-year mortality compared with ESII.

Patients and methods: In this prospective pilot study, 284 participants with severe symptomatic aortic valve stenosis who underwent TAVI were enrolled. Standard clinical metrics (American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA), New York Heart Association and ESII) and patient-reported outcome measures (EuroQol-5 Dimension-Visual Analogue Scale, Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire and Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS)) were assessed 1 day before TAVI. Using these data, we tested predictive models (logistic regression and decision tree algorithm (DTA)) with 1-year mortality as the dependent variable.

Results: Logistic regression yielded the best prediction, with ASA and CFS as the strongest predictors of 1-year mortality. Our logistic regression model score showed significantly better prediction accuracy than ESII (area under the curve=0.659 vs 0.800; p=0.002). By translating our results to a DTA, cut-off score values regarding 1-year mortality risk emerged for low, intermediate and high risk. Treatment costs and length of stay (LoS) significantly increased in high-risk patients.

Conclusions and significance: A novel TAVI-specific model predicts 1-year mortality, LoS and costs after TAVI using simple, established, transparent and inexpensive metrics before implantation. Based on this preliminary evidence, TAVI team members and patients can make informed decisions based on a few key metrics. Validation of this score in larger patient cohorts is needed.

Keywords: Aortic Valve Stenosis; Delivery of Health Care; Outcome Assessment, Health Care.