Identifying dynamic risk spillovers between crude oil and downstream industries: China's futures market perspective

Abstract

Interactions between crude oil and its downstream products are crucial but complex. The main purpose of this study is to examine the risk spillover relationships between the crude oil futures market and the petrochemical downstream futures market in the context of the COVID-19 epidemic in China. By combining the dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH) model and the Diebold-Yilmaz spillover index based on time-varying parameter-vector autoregression (TVP-VAR-DY), we investigate the dynamic correlations between Shanghai crude oil futures (INE) and the downstream futures in China's petrochemical industry chain. At the same time, we also incorporate the representative global crude oil futures (BRENT and WTI) in our study as a comparative analysis. Our results show a significant positive correlation between three crude oil futures and China's downstream future products, with a more pronounced link observed between INE and the downstream futures market. Moreover, the correlation between crude oil futures and various downstream products exhibits heterogeneity; that is, direct derivatives of crude oil show higher sensitivity to price fluctuations compared to products with longer production chains. Furthermore, the spillover results indicate that the international crude oil futures, particularly BRENT, primarily function as spillover transmitters, while INE mainly serves as the recipient. In the post-pandemic period, the international crude oil market still exhibits a high spillover effect, and the spillover effect of INE to polyvinyl chloride, pure terephthalic acid, and bitumen futures increased, reflecting market recovery in China to some extent. These results provide potential insights for policymakers, financial institutions, industry participants, and investors, emphasizing the importance of enhanced risk management, diversified investment strategies, and attention to market dynamics.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; Crude oil futures; Downstream industries; Dynamic spillover.