Long-term recovery dynamics determined by the degree of the disturbance - Ten years tracking of aquatic macroinvertebrate recolonisation after an industrial disaster (Red Sludge Disaster, Hungary)

Abstract

A ten-year-long examination of macroinvertebrate community recovery was conducted following a catastrophic spill of highly alkaline red sludge (pH >13) into lowland streams. Our primary objective was to compare recovery patterns after coarse- and fine-grain disturbances, focusing on two aspects: i) trend analysis to reveal long-term changes of six community parameters, and ii) variation analyses to assess parameter changes over time. We conducted statistical analysis on long-term data series of macroinvertebrates obtained from quantitative samples collected at four sections with varying degrees of disturbance along the impacted stream sections. We developed a comprehensive theoretical framework comprising a series of sequential phases: Ramp-up, Overshoot, and Oscillation Phases. i) A trend analysis revealed that disturbances show a gradual recovery pattern, while variance analyses showed an asymptotic convergence to an equilibrium. ii) Evaluating these trends across phases unveiled that the initial recovery phase exhibited a steep trajectory, lasting 4-9 months, irrespective of disturbance severity. Coarse-grain disturbances induced a remarkable Overshoot phenomenon across all community metrics. The more severe the disturbance, the greater the height and duration of the Overshoot. Our results suggest that the presence or absence of Overshoot can serve as an indicator for coarse-grain disturbances in the context of large and infrequent disturbances (LID). The entire recovery process lasts for 2.5-3 years irrespective of the severity of the LID. In conclusion, a minimum survey duration of two and half years is deemed imperative to capture the phases of recovery, and changes associated with LID are not expected to extend beyond the three-year threshold. The theoretical framework, including Overshoot parameters, may assist future studies in comparing recovery patterns of different LID types. Furthermore, our theoretical framework is likely to be applicable to other groups of organisms given a sufficiently long monitoring of recovery, influenced also by the length of reproductive cycles.

Keywords: Coarse-grain disturbance; Ecological quality ratio (EQR); Functional diversity; Large and infrequent disturbance (LID); Long-term recovery dynamic; Overshoot.