Carbon dioxide emissions and environmental risks: Long term and short term

Sabri Boubaker; Zhenya Liu; Yuhao Mu; Yaosong Zhan

doi:10.1111/risa.14281

Carbon dioxide emissions and environmental risks: Long term and short term

Risk Anal. 2024 Feb 20. doi: 10.1111/risa.14281. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Sabri Boubaker^{1

2

3}, Zhenya Liu^{4

5}, Yuhao Mu⁴, Yaosong Zhan⁶

Affiliations

¹ EM Normandie Business School, Métis Lab, Paris, France.
² International School, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, Vietnam.
³ Swansea University, Swansea, UK.
⁴ School of Finance, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China.
⁵ China Financial Policy Research Center, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China.
⁶ Business School, Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.

PMID: 38375773
DOI: 10.1111/risa.14281

Abstract

The world is currently experiencing the environmental challenge of global warming, necessitating careful planning of carbon dioxide (CO₂ ) emissions to deal with this problem. This study examines the environmental challenge posed by CO₂ emissions from both a long and short-term perspective. In the long term, despite efforts made by countries, our change-point detection analysis shows that there has been no structural change in CO₂ emissions since 1950. Without significant efforts, the carbon budget corresponding to the Paris Agreement's target will be exhausted by 2046. To achieve this target, a significant reduction in global CO₂ emissions of 3.22% per year is necessary. In the short term, COVID-19 is thought to have relieved pressure on CO₂ emissions. However, this study shows that CO₂ emissions quickly returned to normal levels after a brief downturn, and we provide information on the order of CO₂ emissions recovery for different sectors.

Keywords: COVID-19; Paris Agreement; change-point detection; global warming.