Catalytic ethylene dimerization to 1-butene is a crucial reaction in the chemical industry, as 1-butene is used for the production of most common plastics (e.g., polyethylene). With well-defined tuneable structures and unsaturated active sites, defective metal-organic frameworks have recently emerged as potential catalysts for ethylene dimerization. Herein, we computationally design a series of metal hydrides on defective HKUST-1 namely H-M-DHKUST-1 (M: Co, Ni, Cu, Ru, Rh and Pd), and subsequently assess their catalytic activity for ethylene dimerization by density functional theory calculations. Due to the antiferromagnetic behavior of dimeric metal-based clusters, we comprehensively investigate all possible multiplicity states on H-M-DHKUST-1 and observe multiplicity crossing. The ground-state reaction barriers for four elementary steps (initiation, C-C coupling, β-hydride elimination and 1-butene desorption) are rationalized and C-C coupling is revealed to be the rate-determining step on H-Co-, H-Ni-, H-Ru-, H-Rh- and H-Pd-DHKUST-1. The energy barrier for β-hydride elimination is found to be the lowest on H-Ru- and H-Rh-DHKUST-1, attributed to the weak stability of agostic arrangement; however, the energy barrier for 1-butene desorption is the highest on H-Rh-DHKUST-1. Among the designed H-M-DHKUST-1, Co- and Ni-based ones are predicted to exhibit the best overall catalytic performance. The mechanistic insights from this study may facilitate the development of new MOFs toward efficient ethylene dimerization and other industrially important reactions.