Importance: Tobacco smoking is associated with increased risk of various cancers, and smoking cessation has been associated with reduced cancer risks, but it is still unclear how many years of smoking cessation are required to significantly reduce the cancer risk. Therefore, investigating the association of smoking cessation with cancer is essential.
Objective: To investigate the time course of cancer risk according to the time elapsed since smoking cessation and the benefits of smoking cessation according to the age at quitting.
Design, setting, and participants: This population-based, retrospective cohort study included Korean participants aged 30 years and older who underwent 2 or more consecutive health examinations under the National Health Insurance Service since 2002 and were followed-up until 2019. Data analysis was performed from April to September 2023.
Exposures: Exposures included (1) time-updated smoking status based on biennial changes in smoking status, defined as complete quitters, transient quitters, relapsed quitters, continuous smokers, and never smokers; (2) duration of smoking cessation, defined as years since quitting; and (3) categorical variable for age at quitting.
Main outcomes and measures: The primary cancer was ascertained using the cancer registry data: all-site cancer (International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision [ICD-10] codes C00-43, C45-96, or D45-D47), lung cancer (ICD-10 code C34), liver cancer (ICD-10 code C22), stomach cancer (ICD-10 code C16), and colorectal cancer (ICD-10 codes C18-20). Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were estimated using a Cox proportional hazards regression model with follow-up years as the timescale.
Results: Of the 2 974 820 participants, 1 727 340 (58.1%) were men (mean [SD] age, 43.1 [10.0] years), and 1 247 480 (41.9%) were women (mean [SD] age, 48.5 [9.9] years). Over a mean (SD) follow-up of 13.4 (0.1) years, 196 829 cancer cases were confirmed. Compared with continuous smokers, complete quitters had a lower risk of cancer, with HRs of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.80-0.86) for all cancer sites, 0.58 (95% CI, 0.53-0.62) for lung, 0.73 (95% CI, 0.64-0.82) for liver, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.79-0.93) for stomach, and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.72-0.89) for colorectum. The cancer risk exhibited a slightly higher value for 10 years after quitting compared with continued smoking and then it decreased over time, reaching 50% of the risk associated with continued smoking after 15 or more years. Lung cancer risk decreased 3 years earlier than that of other cancer types, with a larger relative reduction. Regardless of quitting age, a significant reduction in the cancer risk was observed. Quitting before the age of 50 years was associated with a greater reduction in lung cancer risk (HR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.35-0.53) compared with quitting at age 50 years or later (HR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.56-0.66).
Conclusions and relevance: In this population-based retrospective cohort study, sustained smoking cessation was associated with significantly reduced risk of cancer after 10 years since quitting. Quitting at any age helped reduce the cancer risk, and especially for lung cancer, early cessation before middle age exhibited a substantial risk reduction.