Prediction of global wheat cultivation distribution under climate change and socioeconomic development

Abstract

Socioeconomic and climate change are both essential factors affecting the global cultivation distributions of crops. However, the role of socioeconomic factors in the prediction of future crop cultivation distribution under climate change has been rarely explored. Motivated by revealing the future global wheat cultivation distribution that coupling socioeconomic factors and climate change, the MaxEnt-SPAM approach was proposed by the present study. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal patterns of global wheat cultivation in the near-term (2011-2040), the mid-term (2041-2070), and long-term (2071-2100) under the scenarios of RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, and RCP8.5-SSP3 were predicted. It indicated that the predictive accuracy of the proposed approach could be over 80 %, with a significant positive correlation (p < 0.01) between the predicted global wheat cultivation and multiple known datasets. Socioeconomic development significantly altered the potential distribution of global wheat cultivation driven by climate change. Socioeconomic development seems to benefit wheat cultivation in the Southern Hemisphere especially central and east Africa, while the Northern Hemisphere may have witnessed a decline in future cultivation areas. It was noteworthy that heightened profitability stimulated interest in expanding wheat cultivation efforts within pivotal countries/regions positioned in the Southern Hemisphere. In the long-term period, the potential wheat cultivation area was reduced by 7 % under the RCP2.6-SSP1 scenario, while it expanded by 8 % and 2 % under the RCP4.5-SSP2 and RCP8.5-SSP3 scenarios, respectively. A global decline in wheat production of 16 %, 3 %, and 3 % was observed in the long-term under the RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, and RCP8.5-SSP3 scenarios respectively. The present study emphasized the importance of integrating socioeconomic factors into crop distribution predictions under climate change. Our findings indicated significant temporal adjustments in the future global distribution of wheat cultivation and offered a comprehensive perspective on how socioeconomic factors interacted with climate change to influence global wheat cultivation.

Keywords: Climate change; Global wheat cultivation; MaxEnt-SPAM approach; Prediction; RCP-SSP scenarios; Socioeconomic development.