Land subsidence susceptibility mapping: a new approach to improve decision stump classification (DSC) performance and combine it with four machine learning algorithms

Abstract

Land subsidence is a worldwide threat. In arid and semiarid lands, groundwater depletion is the main factor that induce the subsidence resulting in environmental damages and socio-economic issues. To foresee and prevent the impact of land subsidence, it is necessary to develop accurate maps of the magnitude and evolution of the subsidences. Land subsidence susceptibility maps (LSSMs) provide one of the effective tools to manage vulnerable areas and to reduce or prevent land subsidence. In this study, we used a new approach to improve decision stump classification (DSC) performance and combine it with machine learning algorithms (MLAs) of naïve Bayes tree (NBTree), J48 decision tree, alternating decision tree (ADTree), logistic model tree (LMT), and support vector machine (SVM) in land subsidence susceptibility mapping (LSSSM). We employ data from 94 subsidence locations, among which 70% were used to train learning hybrid models and the other 30% were used for validation. In addition, the models' performance was assessed by ROC-AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, odd ratio, root-mean-square error (RMSE), kappa, frequency ratio, and F-score techniques. A comparison of the results obtained from the different models reveals that the new DSC-ADTree hybrid algorithm has the highest accuracy (AUC = 0.983) in preparing LSSSMs as compared to other learning models such as DSC-J48 (AUC = 0.976), DSC-NBTree (AUC = 0.959), DSC-LMT (AUC = 0.948), DSC-SVM (AUC = 0.939), and DSC (AUC = 0.911). The LSSSMs generated through the novel scientific approach presented in our study provide reliable tools for managing and reducing the risk of land subsidence.

Keywords: GIS; Hybrid modeling; Iran; Land subsidence; Machine learning.