Based on China's quasi-natural experiment of constructing "Zero-waste Cities", this study assessed its policy benefits on hazardous waste lifecycle management. Utilizing the theory of difference-in-differences analysis, the study quantifies the net benefits of the policy in 10 pilot cities using an average treatment effect formula, and the results indicate a reduction of 162,900 tons/year in waste generation, an increase of 2.3 % in utilization and disposal rate, and a decrease of 28,200 tons/year in end-of-pipe storage. By constructing a regression model and employing robustness tests such as changing control variables, substituting the explained variable, re-matching control groups, and random assignment of pilot sites, the study confirms that the significant policy benefits primarily lie in source reduction, with a reduction intensity of approximately 1.73 tons/100 million yuan of industrial GDP. Additionally, by applying the mixed-effects model and mediation-analysis model, the study finds that the policy benefit of source reduction exhibits a lag effect, and during the pilot period, the main approach to achieving the benefit was through enhancing cleaner production in companies rather than adjusting industrial structures in cites.
Keywords: Environmental policy; Propensity score matching(PSM) with difference-in-differences(DID); Solid waste management; Source reduction; Time lag effect.
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