Applying machine learning to anaerobic fermentation of waste sludge using two targeted modeling strategies

Abstract

Anaerobic fermentation is an effective method to harvest volatile fatty acids (VFAs) from waste activated sludge (WAS). Accurately predicting and optimizing VFAs production is crucial for anaerobic fermentation engineering. In this study, we developed machine learning models using two innovative strategies to precisely predict the daily yield of VFAs in a laboratory anaerobic fermenter. Strategy-1 focuses on model interpretability to comprehend the influence of variables of interest on VFAs production, while Strategy-2 takes into account the cost of variable acquisition, making it more suitable for practical applications in prediction and optimization. The results showed that Support Vector Regression emerged as the most effective model in this study, with testing R² values of 0.949 and 0.939 for the two strategies, respectively. We conducted feature importance analysis to identify the critical factors that influence VFAs production. Detailed explanations were provided using partial dependence plots and Shepley Additive Explanations analyses. To optimize VFAs production, we integrated the developed model with optimization algorithms, resulting in a maximum yield of 2997.282 mg/L. This value was 45.2 % higher than the average VFAs level in the operated fermenter. Our study offers valuable insights for predicting and optimizing VFAs production in sludge anaerobic fermentation, and it facilitates engineering practice in VFAs harvesting from WAS.

Keywords: Anaerobic fermentation; Feature selection; Machine learning; Model interpretability; Volatile fatty acids.