Socioeconomic impacts from coastal flooding in the 21st century China's coastal zone: A coupling analysis between coastal flood risk and socioeconomic development

He Xu; Xiyong Hou; Shunqi Pan; Michaela Bray; Chengxin Wang

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170187

Socioeconomic impacts from coastal flooding in the 21st century China's coastal zone: A coupling analysis between coastal flood risk and socioeconomic development

Sci Total Environ. 2024 Mar 20:917:170187. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170187. Epub 2024 Jan 25.

Authors

He Xu¹, Xiyong Hou², Shunqi Pan³, Michaela Bray³, Chengxin Wang⁴

Affiliations

¹ Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yantai, Shandong, PR China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, PR China; Hydro-environmental Research Centre, School of Engineering, Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom.
² Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yantai, Shandong, PR China. Electronic address: xyhou@yic.ac.cn.
³ Hydro-environmental Research Centre, School of Engineering, Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom.
⁴ College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan, PR China.

PMID: 38278224
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170187

Abstract

Coastal flooding due to sea level rise significantly affects socioeconomic development. The dynamic nature of coastal flood risk (CFR) and socioeconomic development level (SDL) leads to uncertainties in understanding their future interplay. This ambiguity challenges coastal nations in devising effective flood adaptation and coastal management strategies. This study quantitatively examines the expected GDP affected (EGA) and population affected (EPA) by coastal flooding in China's coastal zone (CCZ) from 2030 to 2100 under various climate scenarios (RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, and RCP8.5-SSP5). The future SDL in CCZ is assessed using a method combining the analytic hierarchy process with entropy weight. The future CFR-SDL dynamic relationship is analyzed using the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model. The results reveal that in CCZ under the RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, and RCP8.5-SSP5 scenarios: by 2100, the EGA and EPA will reach $814.90 billion & 6.17 million people, $828.16 billion & 7.63 million people, and $1568.83 billion & 8.05 million people, respectively, where the coastal cities in Jiangsu and Guangdong provinces will face more obvious risks of socioeconomic losses; The total area in the CCZ at "Very high" and "High" level of socioeconomic development by 2100 is projected to reach 11.33 × 10³ km², 12.86 × 10³ km², and 15.82 × 10³ km², respectively, with the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, and Tianjin-Hebei remaining pivotal for CCZ's socioeconomic growth. Cities such as Lianyungang, Jiaxing, Shenzhen, Dongguan, and Foshan show notable CCD characteristics, and addressing the trade-off between SDL and CFR is crucial in achieving sustainable development. This study highlights the potential socioeconomic impacts of coastal flooding and emphasizes the importance of considering the interrelationship between CFR and SDL when developing coastal flood adaptation policies.

Keywords: China's coastal zone; Coastal flood risk; Coastal flooding; Coupling coordination degree; Socioeconomic development level; Socioeconomic impact.