Spatial analysis of Dengue through the reproduction numbers relating to socioeconomic features: Case studies on two Brazilian urban centers

Ana T C Silva; Rejane C Dorn; Lívia R Tomás; Leonardo B L Santos; Lacita M Skalinski; Suani T R Pinho

doi:10.1016/j.idm.2023.12.004

Spatial analysis of Dengue through the reproduction numbers relating to socioeconomic features: Case studies on two Brazilian urban centers

Infect Dis Model. 2023 Dec 22;9(1):142-157. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2023.12.004. eCollection 2024 Mar.

Authors

Ana T C Silva^{1

2}, Rejane C Dorn², Lívia R Tomás³, Leonardo B L Santos³, Lacita M Skalinski^{4

5}, Suani T R Pinho^{2

6}

Affiliations

¹ Departamento de Física, Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana, Av. Transnordestina, s/n. Novo Horizonte, Feira de Santana, 44036-900, BA, Brazil.
² Instituto de Física, Universidade Federal da Bahia, Rua Barão de Jeremoabo s/n, Campus Universitário de Ondina, Salvador, 40170-115, BA, Brazil.
³ Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN), Estrada Dr. Altino Bondensan, 500, São José dos Campos, 12247-016, SP, Brazil.
⁴ Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz, Campus Soane Nazaré de Andrade, Rodovia Jorge Amado, Km 16, Salobrinho, Ilhéus, 45662-900, BA, Brazil.
⁵ Instituto de Saúde Coletiva, Universidade Federal da Bahia, R. Basílio da Gama, s/n - Canela, Salvador, 40110-140, BA, Brazil.
⁶ Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia - Sistemas Complexos, Virtual Institution, Brazil.

Abstract

The study of the propagation of infectious diseases in urban centers finds a close connection with their population's social characteristics and behavior. This work performs a spatial analysis of dengue cases in urban centers based on the basic reproduction numbers, R₀, and incidence by planning areas (PAs), as well as their correlations with the Human Development Index (HDI) and the number of trips. We analyzed dengue epidemics in 2002 at two Brazilian urban centers, Belo Horizonte (BH) and Rio de Janeiro (RJ), using PAs as spatial units. Our results reveal heterogeneous spatial scenarios for both cities, with very weak correlations between R₀ and both the number of trips and the HDI; in BH, the values of R₀ show a less spatial heterogeneous pattern than in RJ. For BH, there are moderate correlations between incidence and both the number of trips and the HDI; meanwhile, they weakly correlate for RJ. Finally, the absence of strong correlations between the considered measures indicates that the transmission process should be treated considering the city as a whole.

Keywords: Basic reproduction number; Dengue; Mathematical model; Urban indices; Urban mobility.